September 9, 2018
Anderson Exports is a Bulk Ingredients Sourcing Agency in Northern California. We specialize in sourcing the best ingredients from California, Brazil and the rest of the world. Our newsletter delivers actionable market intelligence to inform our clients' purchasing decisions.
According to a report by Daniel Sumner and Tristian Hanon from UC Davis published in August 2018, the share of pecans shipped to countries with retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. (~22%) is higher than the share of walnuts (~14%), almonds (~13%), and pistachios (~13%) shipped to markets facing increased tariffs.
The report, which assesses U.S. fruits and nuts found that the trade losses may total to $2.64 billion per year using the export value lost as a measure.
Our earliest new crop shipments are for late September / early October. We supply Fancy Junior Mammoth Halves (FJMH), Fancy Pieces, and other sizes / types for all major U.S. pecan varieties.
The U.S. pistachio crop is developing well. Expect new crop shipments in October and November. We supply all major grades and sizes of in-shell and kernel Pistachios from the U.S. and welcome your inquiries for new crop.
California walnut production is estimated at 690K MT, up 10% from the crop of 630K MT last year according to the 2018 California Walnut Objective Measure Report released by the USDA.
The data indicated an average nut set of 1,176 per tree, up 3.1% from the 2017 average of 1,141. Sizing data came in small -- all of the sizing measurements were below the prior year levels. Although there were some concerns that rains in the late spring would damper the crop, it turned out to the contrary: cooler conditions increased kernel size and improved quality. All told, California is on track for a good walnut harvest which will kick-off in the middle of this month.
For those buyers who are looking for the best potential for high quality inshell, we recommend sourcing your product from the world renowned Linden area, which grows some of the highest quality and most sought after nuts in California. Up and coming regions with increasingly higher quality production also include the Northern areas of Chico and Yuba City. The rise of these growing regions is in no small part due to the climatic changes caused by the increasing pressures of warmer average temperatures seen over the past decade in California’s Central Valley. These higher temperatures create risk of sunburn, infestation, and issues of water availability. Fortunately for California’s walnut industry, Northern California has reliable water resources and a more mild climate, ideal for growing these incredibly healthy nuts.
The cranberry harvest is now only a few weeks away. The 2018 cranberry crop is expected to be normal which will likely register as a year-over-year increase compared to 2017 when production was down in the U.S. and Canada. While production is expected to recover, total supply for 2018 / 2019 will be similar to this past year due to lower carry-in and the USDA volume regulations. The potential for the 2018 handler withholding to pass provides further runway for higher prices for sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs). The Cranberry Marketing Committee meeting in mid-August provided further clarity on the handler withholdings (supply reductions).
The USDA ruling which approved the Cranberry Marketing Committee recommendation to impose a 15% handler withholding on the 2017 crop is being enforced. In total, an estimated 792,000 barrels of cranberries will be removed from U.S. inventories as a result of that ruling, which is about a 7% reduction versus a normal harvest. Since the 2017 crop was down due to natural causes, this artificial supply reduction compounded supply tightness. Amid strong global demand for SDCs, prices have doubled compared to a year ago and show no signs of reversing in the foreseeable future.
The 2018 handler withholding remains a wild card for the cranberry industry. The USDA has still not released the final ruling and producers are frustrated as the consequences of this decision are far-reaching. At the Cranberry Marketing Committee meeting in August, the guidance from the USDA was to proceed with the assumption that the USDA will publish a final ruling consistent with the proposal issued in April. Based on that proposal, it is estimated that the 2018 handler withholding will remove 1,275,000 barrels of cranberries from U.S. inventories, which is about a 12% reduction versus a normal harvest. Given that the market is already extremely tight, the passing of the proposed handler withholding for 2018 would likely give prices further upward momentum.
For buyers with uncovered SDC needs for the fourth quarter 2018, we have some limited availability and would advise reaching out before the production slots are filled up. Given how much prices have come up in the last year, many customers have responded by covering on a hand-to-mouth basis with single loads here and there. This tendency to buy spot instead of through forward contracts may prove to be a costly strategy if forward material is not contracted and the 2018 producer allotment passes. We supply sliced and whole sweetened dried cranberries from Canada and the U.S. and welcome your inquiries.
Yesterday the Raisin Bargaining Association sent out a letter stating the field price offer to packers for the 2018-19 raisin crop. The price offered is the highest in the history of California Raisins and reflects the very low inventory position and the reduced acreage producing raisins. The inventory as of August 1, 2018 was approximately 79,000 tons. This is a reduction of over 40,000 tons from August 1, 2017. Based on this, the growers would need to produce 40,000 more tons than they produced in 2017 just to have the same available tonnage. Weather conditions during the harvest have been exceptional and most in the industry are very optimistic that the crop will be of excellent quality.
With the 2018 California raisin harvest underway, buyers are eager to lock-in new crop contracts. California raisins are known for being the highest quality in the world due to experienced farmers, ideal growing conditions, advanced processing equipment. Natural Thompson Seedless Select raisins are the most sought after raisin variety and size. With shipments of California Thompson raisins down substantially compared to last year, buyers have been covering with other regions -- namely, Turkey, Chile, and South Africa. When the new crop becomes available in the coming weeks, we expect monthly shipment numbers to rebound. Prices will likely remain firm even if the new crop is normal due to extremely low carry-in. From California, we supply Thompson Seedless, Selma Pete, Fiesta, Zante Currant, Flames, Golden Seedless in Jumbo, Select, and Midget sizes and welcome your inquiries.
The new nonpareil crop is rolling in and early reports suggest that sizing is a little small. Of course, these are preliminary reports so the extent of the issue remains to be seen. Nonetheless, this week, many almond suppliers were off the market or only offering “safe” pricing way above the current market. With tariff uncertainty compelling many buyers to stay on the sidelines, forward contracting activity is lagging prior years. However, global demand for almonds is robust and we expect the market to pick-up soon as new crop shipments become available.
Trump’s trade war is having mixed impacts on the California pistachio industry. On the positive side, sanctions on California’s key pistachio growing rival -- Iran -- will likely allow California to take market share in the global market. On the negative side, major buyers of Pistachios are in countries such as China which are being targeted by Trump’s tariffs. As a result, retaliatory tariffs on pistachio imports from China will dampen California’s ability to serve key export markets. With the new crop on the way, the impacts remain to be seen.
The incentives for Brazilian mills to produce sugar sweetener compared to ethanol is extremely low right now. Therefore, much of the cane typically destined for sugar is being diverted to ethanol. These trends are weighing on estimates for how much sugar will be exported by Brazil in the years to come. All told, even with the diversions to ethanol, Brazil is a key global bulk exporter of sugar and that role will likely remain unchanged. Particularly on vessel-load business, other countries have a hard time competing with Brazil due to the favorable cane growing conditions in the country and the sophistication and scale of the industry.
We supply Brazil origin ICUMSA 45 Sugar by the vessel on a spot (MOQ: 12,500 MT) or forward contract basis including long-term contracts of 300,000 MT / month x 12 months. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC confirmed by global top 50 bank. We supply German Beet Sugar (MOQ: 1 FCL) as well as Thai Sugar (MOQ: 10 FCLs)
Next month, soybean planting will begin full-throttle in central Brazil. Particularly due to Chinese tariffs on U.S. agricultural products such as soybeans, Brazil is in a relatively advantaged position vis-a-vis the U.S. Planted soybean acreage is on the rise and Brazil and the country is expected to continue in its role as a key global supplier of soybeans in the years to come.
We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Soybeans from Brazil. MOQ: 12,500+ MT. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC confirmed by global top 50 bank.
Full-season corn is typically planted this month in Brazil. Corn is predominantly grown in the Southern and Southeastern regions of Brazil. During this month, scattered rains are expected and warm to hot temperatures.
We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Corn from Brazil. MOQ: 12,500 MT. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank.
We offer a wide range of rices from Thailand and Cambodia including Gaba Jasmine, Thai Fragrant, Thai Hommali, Thai Black, Thai White, Thai Red and Thai Parboiled Rices. MOQ: 10 x 20’ FCLs.
We work with a number of other products so please reach out if you have an inquiry for something you do not see here. We are experts in sourcing bulk food ingredients and welcome the opportunity to work with you on your inquiries. Some of our other product offerings include sunflower seeds, lentils, green peas, freeze dried fruits, popcorn, dried cherries, dried apples, dried blueberries, cherry concentrate, quinoa, dried honey dates, dried cherry tomatoes, dried gojis, dried kiwis, dried strawberries, chickpeas, chia seeds, dried mulberries, almonds, macadamias, pistachios, walnuts, cashews, pine nuts, pecans, brazil nuts, pumpkin seed kernels, melon kernels, hazelnuts, dried prunes, golden raisins, sultanas, dried apricots, sweet apricot kernels, dried black currants, dried figs, dried dates, popcorns, maraschino cherries, dried tomatoes, strawberry pie filling, blueberry pie filling, cherry pie filling, dried mangoes, dried gingers, dried pineapple, and desiccated coconut.
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