Almonds, Trade War, & More

Almonds

US Almond exports continue to climb year on year, largely due to strong global demand, California’s dominating position as the world’s top almond producer, and continued profitability of California's most valuable tree nut. Both October and November of the 2019/2020 marketing year broke records for the highest export shipments in industry history for those months, with October 2019 posting the single highest export shipment numbers ever.

California Almond Price 2020

The strong Shipment numbers for the 2019/2020 marketing year thus far are keeping prices stable as we enter the Chinese & Lunar New Year.

Our most popular almond varieties are Nonpareil, Independence, Butte/Padre, and Carmel types with the most popular grades of Supreme, Extra, Standard 5%, and more.

Soybeans

After the Phase One US - China trade deal was signed recently, soybean prices have seen some price volatility, reflecting uncertainty concerning the commitments laid out for Beijing’s purchase of US farm products. As Brazil and other sources become more important sources for China’s Soybean appetite, the US may see increased competition and further uncertainties in the forward pricing of this oilseed. 

Under the Phase One deal China has agreed to purchase some USD $80 billion worth of US farm products over two years, according to the US Trade Representatives office. This is certainly interesting phrasing for the deal, given that most measurements of bulk exports and trade data in general, are measured in metric tons not US dollars. Measuring the progress of this deal in dollars creates some anxiety for US exporters as these dollar levels may not be met even if exports increase in total tonnage but prices for US farm products fall in the coming two years. Worth noting is that the USD $40 billion in exports per year proposed in the deal would surpass the record for US farm exports to China seen in any previous year.  

Historically, China has been the largest US market for US soybean exporters and the US was China’s top ag supplier for 18 years running until the trade war escalated in 2017. The disruption caused by this trade war is likely to be more negative than positive for the long term prospects of US soybean exporters. Despite the recent trade deal and USD $28 billion in bailouts to US farmers for losses experienced from these trade hostilities, China has realized its vulnerability in relying on volatile US economic policy and will continue to diversify its soybean supply chain with the rising agro-giants of Brazil, Argentina, and Russia.

We supply GMO and Non-GMO Soybeans and Soybean Meal of all sizes, grades and styles.

Poultry & Pork

There has been much focus of late on imports of Poultry and Pork products into China as a result of the recent outbreak of African Swine Fever and mass culling of China’s domestic pork herds, but the recent Phase One trade deal also includes the US permitting imports of Chinese poultry products into the US. Under the deal, the USDA has made the decision to grant equivalency status to Chinese poultry imports. As many of these Chinese products are considered “processed”, they are no longer subject to country-of-origin labeling requirements. It remains to be seen how domestic US poultry producers will see these rules in light of the benefits for larger foreign-owned agribusinesses. 

Chinese pork prices remain at record highs due to the deadly African swine fever. This devastating disease has introduced Chinese importers to a myriad of new avenues for protein supply. Not only have foreign pork imports increased, but also poultry and beef imports have risen sharply for products from Brazil, Argentina, the US, Australia, and even the UK. China’s AQSIQ certified list of approved meat manufacturers has risen to 850 plants in 18 countries. You can explore the full list HERE.

We supply all major pork and poultry products from SIF certified factories approved by the Chinese AQSIQ. We supply Chicken Feet, Paws, Middle-Joint Wings, in addition to pork products.

Walnuts

Year-to-Date export shipments between September 1 - December 31 fell almost 3% between 2018 and 2019. Export shipments fell 29% year-on-year between December 2018 and December 2019. Compared to last year at this time, when there were record shipments of California inshell walnuts and few available offers, many California processors still have product for prompt shipments available.

We work with the best California walnut packers to supply our customers with Jumbo and Jumbo / Large (J/L) in-shell Chandler, Howard, Hartley, Vina, Tulare, Serr and other varieties. We also provide bleached in-shell walnuts in addition to California shelled product including Chandler and non-Chandler Light Halves & Pieces (LHP) 20%, 40%, 80% and higher based on customer requirements. We also supply Combo Halves and Pieces (CHP) and Light Sorted Pieces (LSP).

Raisins

Many sellers and buyers have had a hard time making sense of the current market for California raisins. Prices have been unable to find solid footing until recently, despite what should be strong current shipments. 

California’s raisins’ traditional export markets have finally recovered from the disruption caused by widespread crop damage experienced during the 2017/2018 marketing year. This damage led to exceedingly high prices with few shipments and then a yo-yo to low prices that have helped export shipments to recover during the 2018/2019 marketing year. As we proceed through the 2019/2020 marketing year, a steady increase in export shipments should solidify a healthy rise in market prices for California NTS and DOV raisins. 

We supply all major bulk California raisins including dried-on-the-vine (DOV) and tray-dried Natural Thompson Seedless Selects, Selma Petes, Flames, Goldens, and other varieties in Jumbo, Select, and Midget sizes and welcome your inquiries. We also supply Selma Pete DOV Double-Run Supreme raisins to Japan and elsewhere which are processed twice to achieve exceptionally low stem and capstem counts. We offer multiple packaging options including custom boxes with client branding, supplier branded boxes, and blank unbranded boxes.

Cranberries

Prices for US and Canadian cranberries have been increasing lately due to the short crop being reported from the fields. This will continue to affect prices for 2020, especially as we enter the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 when the 2019 crop shortage becomes available after freezing, production, and packing. Expect prices to rise through 2020 and availability of Whole SDC to be limited as the year progresses. I recommend anyone not yet covered for their 2020 whole or sliced SDC needs make plans to secure their tonnage sooner rather than later.

We supply Conventional and Organic Whole or Sliced Sweetened Dried Cranberries (SDCs) packed in bulk cases as well as Organic Apple Juice Sweetened varieties. We also work with quarter inch diced and other diced cranberry products available as per client requirement. In addition, we supply 50 Brix and 65 Brix cranberry concentrate shipped in bulk 55 gallon drums.

Pistachios

We supply raw in-shell pistachios and raw pistachio kernels of all sizes, grades and styles. We also supply roasted Extra No. 1 pistachios and welcome your inquiries.

Pecans

We supply Fancy Junior Mammoth Halves (FJMH), Fancy Mammoth Halves, Fancy Pieces, and other sizes / types for all major U.S. pecan varieties.

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