Almonds
The 2020 USDA NASS Almond Objective Measurement Report was released this week and California’s 2020 almond crop is estimated to be the largest on record. Data from the fields is showing that favorable weather during April & June, mated with increases in bearing acreage and ample water supply have converged to produce this year’s record setting estimated total production of California Almonds at 3.00 billion meat pounds (lb).
This year’s crop is a full 18% larger than the 2019 crop. Notably, the production for Nonpareil almonds is closing in on almost half (43% as of 2020) of all almond varieties grown in California. NP production for 2020 is estimated at 1.30 billion meat pounds, up some 24% vs 2019.
For all almond varieties taken together, the nut sets per tree increased over 20%. 2020 Nonpareil average nut sets increased almost 30% over the 2019 crop. Despite more nuts per tree, the average size of the nuts (or kernel weight) was down 2% for all varieties vs 2019.
There is something curious in the data this year that is not seen in any previous years. When looking at the average nuts per tree by region, all years before 2020 (2016 - 2019) show a relatively similar pattern. The North region produces the 3rd most, or lowest number of average nuts per tree, the Central region typically produces the 2nd most, and the South region produces the most average nuts per tree.
In 2020, we can see a radical reversal of this past trend with the North region now producing the MOST average nuts per tree and the South region producing the LEAST.
Also of note is the cyclical pattern for the Central region, showing a growth pattern of intermittent “resting” years followed by bumper crops.
Finally, one can also see that the South region, despite increasing bearing acreage, has consistently produced LESS average nuts per tree year-over-year, the ONLY region in California to exhibit a consistent downward trajectory. The North region, for reasons I am unsure of at this time, radically reversed this downward trend in 2020.
Without digging deeper, it is hard to know the cause of this radical shift - was there more bearing acreage coming online in 2020 in the North vs the South? Were there water access issues? Is the difference climate or weather related? Did pollinators have different flight habits based on geography?
While it is hard to point to any single factor causing the variation by region seen in the Average Nuts Per Tree in 2020, it will be worth keeping an eye on these trends. Should the trends of 2020 continue, new almond investors may do well to look north for better potential ROI in the new decade.
Our most popular almond varieties are Nonpareil, Independence, Butte/Padre, and Carmel types with the most popular grades of Supreme, Extra, Standard 5%, and more.
Walnuts
The Walnut Board of California shipment report for June 2020 was released this past week and YTD In-shell exports are down -16% vs this time in 2019. By comparison, total YTD exports of Shelled walnuts are only down some -3.09%.
Reports from the fields have many suppliers thinking that the crop looks big for 2020. There are some concerns the quality of the nuts may be diminished due to above average temperatures in some growing regions, although it is likely too early to tell the extent of any such damage. It seems California will open in-shell pricing lower than the current price in Chile, which should facilitate early sales of California walnuts.
As the shipment report for June 2020 shows, year-to-date shipments of in-shell walnuts are down primarily in the Middle East / Africa region - down some -25% in 2020 vs 2019. Both the U.A.E. (-43,27%) and Pakistan (-98.62%) were down considerably in 2020 over this time in 2019. Europe was up slightly by comparison.
The big question for California in-shell sellers going into this fall will be if and how they will entice these buyers to come back to California. Due to current high prices for in-shell from other origins, it is likely that a lower opening price in California will push buyers back to the Central Valley. Conditions would be similar to the 2018 / 2019 season when many packers saw record shipments.
One last note from the latest Walnut Board Shipment Report is that the 2018/19 Shellout rate - which was recorded at 44.2% - is slightly higher than the 2019/20 Shellout rate - 44.0%. As many walnut growers report what they believe will be a large crop, we see a similar trend; California walnuts, like almonds, may have more average nuts per tree but a lower average kernel weight in 2020 vs 2019.
We work with the best California walnut packers to supply our customers with Jumbo and Jumbo / Large (J/L) in-shell Chandler, Howard, Hartley, Vina, Tulare, Serr and other varieties. We also provide bleached in-shell walnuts in addition to California shelled product including Chandler and non-Chandler Light Halves & Pieces (LHP) 20%, 40%, 80% and higher based on customer requirements. We also supply Combo Halves and Pieces (CHP) and Light Sorted Pieces (LSP).
Air Cargo Opportunity - Chicago to Frankfurt
There is a limited window to secure space on a weekly flight between Chicago Rockford Airport and Frankfurt Hahn International Air Cargo Airport in Germany. This will be an ongoing weekly flight schedule for a minimum of 2+ years with an Anchor Client already secured & shipping product from Germany to Chicago on a weekly basis.
The opportunity is to book air cargo on the Empty Leg from Chicago, USA back to Frankfurt, Germany at greatly reduced rates, on a regular basis. The Anchor Client heavily subsidizes the air cargo shipment of your products. We can even help you find buyers if you have a high margin product and are interested in reaching new markets in Europe.
In most cases, we are able to deliver your product to buyers in Germany and other destinations in Europe within 24 - 48 hours.
Reach out directly if you are interested in learning more - erik@andersonexports.com
Scallops & Lobsters
The US Scallop Harvest began on April 1st, 2020. There is expected to be a harvest reduction of 12 M lbs over the next 12 months. This will bring the overall harvest down from around > 60 M to about 50 M lbs. The US Harvest Forecast Sizing is estimated to be approx. 15% U / 10’s, 70% 10 / 20’s, and 15% 20 / 30’s.
Current pricing trends for US scallops show prices falling due to COVID-19 earlier while June saw prices firming as food service demand begins to increase again. Current supermarket demand remains strong.
US Lobster processing has been impacted by COVID-19 more than some industries as Whole Cooked Lobster prices are mainly impacted by Asian markets, whereas Lobster Meat and Tails are mainly impacted by North American demand.
Asian demand for Live Lobsters during Lunar New Year were off some 30 - 40% with Asian sales of Whole Cooked Lobster also seeing a sharp drop. While 2019 saw record high prices for Lobster Tails and higher prices for Lobster Meat, this year it seems demand for many lobster products has disappeared into thin air.
As a result, catch quotas and in some cases, fishing days, were cut to reduce the harvest. With lower than usual prices in 2020 the retail sector enjoyed growth and helped to consume some of the excess inventory.
A5 Wagyu Beef - Authentic Japanese Wagyu
Authentic Japanese Wagyu beef has been, and remains, the global gold standard for refinement, exclusivity, distinctive fat marble, and rich flavor experience.
For more information, reach out and we can share our full Wagyu Product Guide and discuss your specific needs.
Made in the USA - Face Masks & N95 Respirators
We are selling 3-ply surgical and non-surgical face masks as well as N95 Respirators. The products are all manufactured in the USA, are FDA registered, and the N95 Respirators are receiving their NIOSH approval.
As the data becomes increasingly clear, face masks and N95 respirators help to prevent the spread of the novel Coronavirus. We are able to offer for large volume inquiries only at this time, subject to final confirmation:
3-ply masks - USD $0.50 / unit Ex-Works
N95 Respirators - USD $3.50 / unit Ex-Works
Raisins
We supply all major bulk California raisins including dried-on-the-vine (DOV) and tray-dried Natural Thompson Seedless Selects, Selma Petes, Flames, Goldens, and other varieties in Jumbo, Select, and Midget sizes and welcome your inquiries. We also supply Selma Pete DOV Double-Run Supreme raisins to Japan and elsewhere which are processed twice to achieve exceptionally low stem and capstem counts. We offer multiple packaging options including custom boxes with client branding, supplier branded boxes, and blank unbranded boxes.
Sunflower
Prices have risen sharply since the opening of the US sunflower harvest as supply has been diminished to a number of factors, including adverse weather during the critical growing season. Inventory is limited and prices are likely to remain high for the near future.
We supply In-shell sunflower as well as hulled sunflower kernel available in premium and industrial grades for all major sizes. Packaging options include 10 KG, 25 lb, and 50 lb bags.
Cranberries
US and Canadian cranberry prices have come down from their previous levels at the beginning of the year. Many suppliers are assessing their inventory going into the harvest this fall. Many US sellers still have some inventory available for spot and forward contracts.
We supply Conventional and Organic Whole or Sliced Sweetened Dried Cranberries (SDCs) packed in bulk cases as well as Organic Apple Juice Sweetened varieties. We also work with quarter inch diced and other diced cranberry products available as per client requirement. In addition, we supply 50 Brix and 65 Brix cranberry concentrate shipped in bulk 55 gallon drums.