March 29, 2018
Anderson Exports is a Dried Fruit & Nut Agency in Northern California. We specialize in sourcing the best ingredients from California and the rest of the world.
The total available supply of California raisins is expected to be approx. 68,000 MT lower than the year prior, reflecting a percentage decrease of 18% and a tonnage decrease greater than the total of Chile or South Africa’s entire annual production capacities. Through the end of February, 56% of the California crop has been shipped compared to 52% last year based on RAC Raisin Shipment Data ending February 2018. Domestic buyers have already contracted much of the remaining tonnage making the amount of material available for export this year even lower. The shortages of fruit in the Central Valley of California are now severe. Some processors are completely sold out of raisins while others are no longer offering high volume forward contract business.
This has led to some of the highest prices seen in some time. Over the past year, we have seen California’s raisin market make an acute shift from low to high, ultimately due to this unanticipated shortage. We believe the basis for the 9% reduction in shipments vs last year is likely two-fold. As the market runs the price up, it is likely that grower’s are reluctant to sell too much material too early in order to benefit from the rising prices by holding inventory of the market. At the same time, we believe this rising market is also causing buyer apprehension when considering their purchasing decisions.
Many buyers have hesitated to jump in at these high prices, hoping for some relief, but have found none. Many buyers are buying hand to mouth as suppliers are no longer offering large forward contracts. It is unlikely prices will come down in the near term either, since there is still material left to move with a relatively constant pent up domestic and global demand keeping upward pressure on the market. See the chart below for California Thompson Selects pricing history.
This will create an interesting dynamic in the California Raisin industry for many years to come. Each year we are seeing more raisin vine pull-outs as grower’s look to cash in on the almond bonanza of the last few years. We think this creates a very valuable and unique future position for California’s raisin growers and producers. In the future, as the price of almonds has steadied and more planted almond acreage begins to bear, we may see an inflection point at which it may be more valuable to own raisin vines than almond trees.
To many in the industry, this was unthinkable last year. As we look at California’s forward outlook though, we project that this day may not be too far off. If you look at average vine pull-outs each year and control for this single reduction in production capacity, we see that California’s raisin industry may have 64% of their total supply shipped by the end of February, 2019. As demand remains strong domestically and across the globe, it is hard to imagine Thompson Seedless prices coming down this season, or even next.
Due to this high likelihood of steadily increasing prices, many packers are not offering large forward contracts. We advise buyers of California-origin raisins with unfilled forward needs to cover sooner rather than later. If you have a need, Anderson Exports can offer both long-term and near-term contracts depending on your required volume and shipment period.
With a small crop here in the US and rising demand, we are seeing higher prices and escalating shortages for sliced sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs). Lead-times over the last few weeks have increased substantially. Today, the industry is fully committed through June and nearly every single supplier is off the market. These conditions are expected to intensify in the future, causing prices to rise over the near-term. We also see further upside in prices over the long-term due to the proposed volume regulation for SDCs. Due to these factors, the availability of material problem will worsen over the coming months.
We strongly recommend forward booking sooner rather than later as we see prices only going higher from here and availability becoming even more problematic. We have never seen such few offers in the market.
The outlook for the South American prune crop is good. Total tonnage expectations are around 70,000 and 35,000 tons for Chile and Argentina, respectively. In the next crop, medium sizes from 40/50 to 50/60 are expected to gain share vs. large / jumbo sizes. We are well positioned to offer on Chilean and California organic and non-organic prunes and welcome your inquiries.
Brazil is poised to achieve a record sugar crop of 40.2mm tons due to favorable weather, stable planted acreage and lower use of cane for ethanol. Exports are expected to exceed 29.6mm tons, up 1.1mm tons from last year. So far in 2018, global prices have softened slightly.
We offer ICUMSA 45 Sugar by the vessel on a spot (MOQ: 100,000mt) or forward contract basis including long-term contracts of 300,000mt / month x 12 months. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank. Product is SGS-inspected end-to-end at buyer’s request.
Favorable soil moisture and strong yields are strengthening the Brazil soybean crop. Production estimates for the current crop rose slightly in recent weeks to ~113mm tons, just below the 114mm tons produced last year. Brazilian exports this year may exceed 70.5mm tons, marking a new record. Planted soybean acreage remained stable year-over-year at 86.5 million acres. Yields declined ~4% compared to last year. The current Brazil soybean crop is ~45% harvested.
In Argentina, severe hot and dry conditions dragged estimates lower in recent weeks. Production estimates for Argentine soybean production were revised down by ~7mm tons to 47mm tons. With 35% of Argentine soybeans filing pods currently, adverse weather in the near-term may further impair the crop.
We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Soybean meal from Brazil. MOQ: 100,000+ tons. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank.
With the safrinha corn crop in Brazil now ~80% planted, focus turns to weather conditions over the coming months. Planted acreage for the Brazil safrinha corn crop is down ~6% from last year so favorable weather and yields will be essential. We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Corn meal from Brazil. MOQ: 100,000+ tons. Product is SGS inspected end-to-end at buyer’s request. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank.
Partnership Announcement: Henry’s Seafood
We are pleased to announce our partnership with Henry’s Seafood. The company offers premium seafood products processed in the USA. Henry’s commitment to quality and value adds depth to our seafood portfolio. All seafood products are offered on a bulk (MOQ: 1 x 20' FCL) branded or private label basis.
Our crab cakes are premium Maryland-style made with real Maryland crabmeat. The classic crab cake is precooked and has a 21-day shelf life when thawed. Our classic crab cakes are ideal for price-conscious customers seeking quality quick to- prepare meals. The classic cake can be ordered in 4 packages: 80 ct bulk, which is great for full service seafood operations, and 2, 6, and 12 packs, which are available for frozen food sections.
Lobster, Salmon, and Crawfish Cakes
We also offer lobster, salmon, and crawfish cakes. Maine Lobster is the #1 ingredient in the lobster cake, while Alaskan salmon is the #1 ingredient in the salmon cake. The cakes are precooked so your customer needs only to heat and eat.
Hand-Scooped Crab Cakes
We are pleased to offer 100% real Maryland Crabmeat, Maine Lobster, Shrimp, and Wild Salmon. All processing occurs in the USA with strong food safety oversight.
Our premium stuffing creates unique, high-quality items such as stuffed salmon or flounder, and crab-stuffed appetizers like crab-stuffed Portobello caps. The stuffing also can be used to create your own homemade crab cakes.
We are well-positioned to offer canned skipjack tuna in 170 gram cans in 53’ FCL (30 pallets) or 20’ FCL (11 pallets) on a CIF basis.
We also supply frozen Mackerel, Tilapia, Tuna, Squid, White and Red Reef Cod, Long Tail Tuna, Sail Fish, Mahi Mahi, Catfish, Shrimp and Prawns, Deep Sea Lobsters, Red & Grey Mullet, Sole, Silver Pomfrets Fishes, and Sea Cucumber.