March 12, 2018
Anderson Exports is a Dried Fruit & Nut Agency in Northern California. We specialize in sourcing the best ingredients from California and the rest of the world.
Brazil is poised to achieve a record sugar crop of 40.2mm tons due to favorable weather, stable planted acreage and lower use of cane for ethanol. Exports are expected to exceed 29.6mm tons, up 1.1mm tons from last year. So far in 2018, global prices have softened slightly.
We offer ICUMSA 45 Sugar by the vessel on a spot (MOQ: 100,000mt) or forward contract basis including long-term contracts of 300,000mt / month x 12 months. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank. Product is SGS-inspected end-to-end at buyer’s request.
Favorable soil moisture and strong yields are strengthening the Brazil soybean crop. Production estimates for the current crop rose slightly in recent weeks to ~113mm tons, just below the 114mm tons produced last year. Brazilian exports this year may exceed 70.5mm tons, marking a new record. Planted soybean acreage remained stable year-over-year at 86.5 million acres. Yields declined ~4% compared to last year. The current Brazil soybean crop is ~45% harvested.
In Argentina, severe hot and dry conditions dragged estimates lower in recent weeks. Production estimates for Argentine soybean production were revised down by ~7mm tons to 47mm tons. With 35% of Argentine soybeans filing pods currently, adverse weather in the near-term may further impair the crop.
We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Soybean meal from Brazil. MOQ: 100,000+ tons. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank.
With the safrinha corn crop in Brazil now ~80% planted, focus turns to weather conditions over the coming months. Planted acreage for the Brazil safrinha corn crop is down ~6% from last year so favorable weather and yields will be essential.
We supply GMO and Non-GMO certified Corn meal from Brazil. MOQ: 100,000+ tons. Product is SGS inspected end-to-end at buyer’s request. Payment by SBLC, BG, or DLC from global top 50 bank.
The total available supply of California raisins is expected to be approx. 68,000 MT lower than the year prior, reflecting a percentage decrease of 18% and a tonnage decrease greater than the total of Chile or South Africa’s entire annual production capacities. Through the end of February, 56% of the California crop has been shipped compared to 52% last year based on RAC Raisin Shipment Data ending February 2018. Domestic buyers have already contracted much of the remaining tonnage making the amount of material available for export this year significantly lower.
This has led to some of the highest prices seen in some time. Over the past year, we have seen California’s raisin market make an acute shift from low to high, ultimately due to this unanticipated shortage. We believe the basis for the 9% reduction in shipments vs last year is likely two-fold. As the market runs the price up, it is likely that grower’s are reluctant to sell too much material too early in order to benefit from the rising prices by holding inventory of the market. At the same time, we believe this rising market is also causing buyer apprehension when considering their purchasing decisions.
Many buyers have hesitated to jump in at these high prices, hoping for some relief, but have found none. Many buyers are buying hand to mouth as suppliers are no longer offering large forward contracts. It is unlikely prices will come down in the near term either, since there is still a major portion of the crop left to move with a relatively constant pent up domestic and global demand keeping upward pressure on the market. See the chart below for California Thompson Selects pricing history.
This will create an interesting dynamic in the California Raisin industry for many years to come. Each year we are seeing more raisin vine pull-outs as grower’s look to cash in on the almond bonanza of the last few years. We think this creates a very valuable and unique future position for California’s raisin growers and producers. In the future, as the price of almonds has steadied and more planted almond acreage begins to bear, we may see an inflection point at which it may be more valuable to own raisin vines than almond trees.
To many in the industry, this was unthinkable last year. As we look at California’s forward outlook though, we project that this day may not be too far off. If you look at average vine pull-outs each year and control for this single reduction in production capacity, we see that California’s raisin industry may have 64% of their total supply shipped by the end of February, 2019. As demand remains strong domestically and across the globe, it is hard to imagine Thompson Seedless prices coming down this season, or even next.
Due to this high likelihood of steadily increasing prices, many packers are not offering large forward contracts. We advise buyers of California-origin raisins with unfilled forward needs to cover sooner rather than later. If you have a need, Anderson Exports can offer both long-term and near-term contracts depending on your required volume and shipment period.
The price has been steadily increasing since harvest due to low supply and lower dried cranberry availability. The soonest product is available now is for shipment in May 2018. We have seen high numbers of SDC sales lately, which added to low supply, means there isn't a lot left to sell until May/June going forward. We have seen prices much higher than last year, some offers we have seen have been over USD $1.60 / lb on an ex works basis. Not that long ago the price was $1.10 / lb.
The outlook for the South American prune crop is good. Total tonnage expectations are around 70,000 and 35,000 tons for Chile and Argentina, respectively. In the next crop, medium sizes from 40/50 to 50/60 are expected to gain share vs. large / jumbo sizes. We are well positioned to offer on Chilean and California organic and nonorganic prunes and welcome your inquiries.