Anderson Exports is a Bulk Ingredients Sourcing Agency in Northern California. We specialize in sourcing the best ingredients from California, Brazil and the rest of the world. Our newsletter delivers actionable market intelligence to inform our clients' purchasing decisions.
We visited multiple raisin processors in the Central Valley of California this week to discuss the new crop and forward pricing for the 2018 California raisin crop.
The vines are no longer resting this year and weather has been favorable so bunch counts are up significantly compared to the prior year. In one raisin plot in Kerman, California we learned that bunch counts recovered to 34 bunches per vine this year compared to 18 bunches per vine in the prior year, up 89%. Consistent with improved bunch counts and yields, we also observed substantial increases in the number of trays per row compared to last year, which is of course another positive indicator for the new crop. There is no rain or adverse weather in the 15-day forecast so the quality of the new raisin crop should be exceptional.
Despite the rebound in production, total supply will be relatively unchanged compared to last year due to the record low carry-in. For 2018, we expect total supply of approximately 335K MT, consisting of ~260K MT from 2018 production and ~75K from 2017 carry-over. The total supply for bulk raisins is probably even lower since as much as ~50K MT of the industry carry-over may be held by Sun-Maid and destined for retail, not bulk raisin export markets.
Pricing for 2018 crop bulk California raisins is opening at reasonable levels. Customers buying at expensive prices for 2017 crop over the past few months are finding some relief in the lower prices for the new 2018 raisin crop. Opening prices are generating new contracting momentum and also leaving room for steady price increases throughout the season, which is ideal for processors and foreign importers. Demand for new crop from foreign markets in Asia should be particularly strong as shipment numbers from California have been significantly below normal in recent months. Shipments of California Natural Seedless raisins to export markets totaled only 4,192MT in August 2018, 59% lower than the prior year period. We anticipate stable and slowly rising prices for bulk California Thompson raisins.
California’s new crop raisins are of excellent quality and as the harvest gets underway, we believe it is important to inform our buyers of California’s key raisin products and their differences. The graphic below shows the primary attributes of California’s two most commonly exported raisins: Thompson Seedless (Tray-Dried) and Dried-on-the-Vine (DOV). It is important to note that the distinction of DOV specifically describes the drying / harvest process, not a difference in variety as a single variety of grape can be either tray-dried (Thompson Seedless) or Dried-on-the-Vine (Thompson DOV).
As California comes to market with extremely high quality fruit, Turkey is grappling with unprecedented currency volatility. In this unknown environment, forward contracting in Turkey with high confidence is all but impossible. Based on the extent of recent swings in the Lira, currency movements of a single day can ruin an otherwise profitable raisin contract from Turkey. The extent to which this instability will incentivize Turkish raisin buyers to reconsider their supply sources remains to be seen. To be sure, price motivations have clearly dominated many European buyers’ shift to Turkey but if currency issues persist or quality problems arise, some buyers may reconsider.
We are pleased to present the following product showcase for Selma Pete DOV Double-Run Supreme raisins.
We supply all major bulk California raisins including dried-on-the-vine (DOV) and tray-dried Thompson Seedless Selects, Selma Petes, Flames, Goldens, and other varieties in Jumbo, Select, and Midget sizes.
The California walnut new crop is developing well. The weather has been ideal with the harvest underway for the early varieties of Vina, Serr, Howard, and Hartley. California packers are receiving a smaller than usual number of forward contracts vs this time last year. Opening prices are low with processors aware that it is a buyers market right now. Processors also know that seasonal demand from Europe and the Middle East are not yet fully expressed in the market price. Some processors may be keen to get forward business on the books at the current low prices while other larger processors are not anxious to undersell what is shaping up to be an excellent crop.
Chandler inshell will be available to ship in the first half of October. Early varieties such as Vina, Serr, and Hartley are already being received by California walnut processors. Jumbo and Jumbo / Large Hartley Bleached, Jumbo Howard, Jumbo Chandler, and Jumbo Large Chandler available for booking.
Prices remain high for sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs) as supply remains tight. With extremely limited near-term availability, there is no spot market for prompt shipment from origin. Though the new crop is developing well, anxiety still surrounds the possibility of the USDA’s approving a 25% volume reduction across the U.S. cranberry industry. We supply organic and non-organic whole and sliced sweetened dried cranberries (SDCs) from Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Canada.
California Almonds are on track to hit a record breaking crop for the 2018 harvest. Early indications suggest that the nonpareil crop may be short. Our recent visit to California’s Central Valley reaffirmed reports that this almond crop is of very high quality as the first field-run product is received by processors for packing.
All major California Almond varieties will be available to ship in the coming weeks as many buyers are beginning to book their forward inventories. Our most popular almond varieties are Nonpareil, Independence, Butte/Padre, & Carmel types with the most popular grades of Supreme, Extra, Standard 5%, and more.
We work with a number of other products so please reach out if you have an inquiry for something you do not see here. We are experts in sourcing bulk food ingredients and welcome the opportunity to work with you on your inquiries. Some of our other product offerings include sunflower seeds, lentils, green peas, freeze dried fruits, popcorn, dried cherries, dried apples, dried blueberries, cherry concentrate, quinoa, dried honey dates, dried cherry tomatoes, dried gojis, dried kiwis, dried strawberries, chickpeas, chia seeds, dried mulberries, almonds, macadamias, pistachios, walnuts, cashews, pine nuts, pecans, brazil nuts, pumpkin seed kernels, melon kernels, hazelnuts, dried prunes, golden raisins, sultanas, dried apricots, sweet apricot kernels, dried black currants, dried figs, dried dates, popcorns, maraschino cherries, dried tomatoes, strawberry pie filling, blueberry pie filling, cherry pie filling, dried mangoes, dried gingers, dried pineapple, and desiccated coconut.
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